{"id":478,"date":"2011-01-13T12:14:39","date_gmt":"2011-01-13T12:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/?p=478"},"modified":"2015-07-21T16:37:29","modified_gmt":"2015-07-21T16:37:29","slug":"les-emissions-de-co2-du-transports-en-2050-aux-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/2011\/01\/les-emissions-de-co2-du-transports-en-2050-aux-usa.html","title":{"rendered":"Les \u00e9missions de CO2 du transports en 2050 aux USA"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Une <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pewclimate.org\/press-center\/press-releases\/new-report-examines-paths-cleaner-more-secure-us-transportation-solutions\" target=\"_blank\">nouvelle \u00e9tude <\/a><\/strong>vient d\u2019\u00eatre publi\u00e9e par le PEW Center on Global Climate Change et r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par Oak ridge et Argonne National labs. Elle vise \u00e0 estimer le potentiel de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de CO2 \/ consommation d\u2019\u00e9nergies du secteur des transports aux USA \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Trois sc\u00e9narios sont propos\u00e9s, mixant des solutions \u2026 connues (voir ci-dessous) depuis vraisemblablement plus de cinquante ans&#160;: technologies, comportements, politiques publiques, et interactions entre les 3. Ce type d\u2019\u00e9tude est n\u00e9cessaire pour acqu\u00e9rir quelques ordres de grandeurs, quantifier l&#039;influence des param\u00e8tres cl\u00e9s, pour se rappeler ou conna\u00eetre les solutions de base, elle n\u2019est plus suffisante pour estimer les \u00e9missions de CO2 \u00e0 moyen et long termes. <\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->   <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;padding-left: 30px\"><em>All three scenarios incorporate a price on carbon, obtained directly from a carbon tax or indirectly from a carbon cap-and-trade system.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;padding-left: 30px\">\n<li><em>The <strong>Low Mitigation Case<\/strong> includes post-2016 GHG emissions standards for LDVs requiring reductions of about 2% per year. The scenario includes an energy efficiency indexed highway user fee, modest improvements in energy efficiency in non-highway modes, and little additional alternative fuel use beyond the Base Case.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The <strong>Mid Mitigation Case<\/strong> reflects a greater public commitment to reducing GHG emissions, more rapid technological progress, and a tolerance for some additional innovative pricing policies. Emission standards are more stringent, and public commitment is reflected in greater reductions from energy-efficient driving, land use strategies, an acceptance of feebates, and minimum liability PATP (pay-at-the-pump) vehicle insurance.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The <strong>High Mitigation Case<\/strong> assumes rapid technological progress and aggressive emission standards. Public urgency about addressing climate change is reflected in greater effectiveness of policies such as eco-driving, land use policies, and the acceptance of congestion pricing and more comprehensive PATP insurance. In the High Mitigation Case, a transition to electric and\/or hydrogen vehicles is well underway by 2050. <\/em><em>Finally, automated highways are introduced by 2050 on major routes.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Dans le domaine des transports, la question n\u2019est plus de trouver des solutions pour r\u00e9duire la consommation, mais de trouver des moyens pour qu\u2019elles s\u2019appliquent largement et rapidement (partout, tout le monde), ce qui n\u2019est pas tout \u00e0 fait la m\u00eame chose. Or sur ce sujet, peu d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment innovant \u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Rien, par exemple, sur la mutation actuelle de l\u2019industrie automobile, qui n\u2019est abord\u00e9e ici que par l\u2019angle technologique (le v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique devient probable, cette fili\u00e8re offre de b\u00e9n\u00e9fice unitaire en mati\u00e8re de CO2, elle est donc int\u00e9gr\u00e9e aux sc\u00e9narios), alors que le VE offre une opportunit\u00e9 de repenser la mobilit\u00e9, certains, comme General Electric, l\u2019ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 compris (voir <strong><a href=\"\/2010\/11\/general-electric-se-prepare-a-devenir-le-leader-mondial-en-matiere-de-mobilite-electrique.html\" target=\"_blank\">ici<\/a><\/strong>). Dans ce cas, les sc\u00e9narios \u00ab&#160;VE&#160;\u00bb devraient s\u2019\u00e9tudier avec le d\u00e9veloppement des smartgrids, des smartphones, des comportements de la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration Y, de l\u2019intermodalit\u00e9 et donc du d\u00e9veloppement des transports en commun publics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Rien sur l&#039;acc\u00e8s \u00e0 la donn\u00e9e de la consommation r\u00e9elle, donc des \u00e9missions de CO2 qui pourrait arriver d&#039;ici quelques ann\u00e9es et qui changerait alors la r\u00e9glementation, la fiscalit\u00e9, les taxes (voir <strong><a href=\"\/2010\/09\/metanote-tdf-7-la-donnee-enjeu-strategique-des-mobilites-multimodales-quelles-perspectives.html\" target=\"_blank\">ici <\/a><\/strong>et <strong><a href=\"\/2010\/12\/quand-la-chaine-logistique-devient-transparente.html\" target=\"_blank\">l\u00e0<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">La liste des solutions de taxes, syst\u00e8me bonus\/malus (le cas fran\u00e7ais est cit\u00e9), PAYD est \u00e9galement int\u00e9ressant, mais leur \u00ab&#160;applicabilit\u00e9&#160;\u00bb est peu d\u00e9taill\u00e9e, quel impact social&#160;? \u201c<em>Pricing can be a very powerful tool for increasing energy efficiency, promoting low-carbon fuels, and encouraging environmentally beneficial travel choices. The American public, however, has historically resisted policies for transportation that use prices to influence environmental decisions\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">L\u2019\u00e9tude propose alors de lancer une strat\u00e9gie globale incluant tous les niveaux d\u2019acteurs&#160;:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/old\/6a0120a66d2ad4970b0148c791f2a7970c-800wi.jpg\" data-rel=\"penci-gallery-image-content\"  rel=\"lightbox\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Pew_usa\" class=\"asset  asset-image at-xid-6a0120a66d2ad4970b0148c791f2a7970c\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/old\/6a0120a66d2ad4970b0148c791f2a7970c-320wi.jpg\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto\" title=\"Pew_usa\" \/><\/a>&#160;<br \/>&#160;<br \/><em>\u201cAchieving the full potential to reduce transportation\u2019s GHG emissions will require a comprehensive strategy comprised of many policies. But these three major policies will not be enough. An array of other policies and measures, some based on technology, others on price signals, still others on changing institutional or individual behavior, need to be implemented in innovative ways at various levels of government and with the participation of individuals and organizations. Many of these policies will not be justifiable on the basis of their GHG mitigation benefits alone; they will depend on other benefits such as reducing traffic congestion, improving system efficiencies, reducing petroleum dependence or enhancing safety. Finally, based on the analysis in this report, it makes sense to begin what will ultimately become a full-scale transition from a carbon-intensive transportation system to one based on sustainable low-carbon energy, requiring policies that account for the potential long-term social benefits of the transition.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Il s\u2019agit l\u00e0 d\u2019un excellent cahier des charges, \u00e0 suivre \u2026<\/p>\n<div id=\"__ss_6545916\" style=\"width: 477px\"><strong style=\"margin: 12px 0 4px\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/transportsdufutur\/pew-reducing-ghgfromtransportation\" title=\"Pew reducing ghg_from_transportation\">Pew reducing ghg_from_transportation<\/a><\/strong>        <\/p>\n<div style=\"padding: 5px 0 12px\">View more <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/\">documents<\/a> from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/transportsdufutur\">transportsdufutur<\/a>.<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une nouvelle \u00e9tude vient d\u2019\u00eatre publi\u00e9e par le PEW Center on Global Climate Change et&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[31,38,39,64,74,84,99,105,106,120,125,133,145,148,160,179,205],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=478"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3912,"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478\/revisions\/3912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/transportsdufutur.ademe.fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}